After one of the most active periods in the geopolitical calendar in some time, it’s no understatement to suggest that gold has experienced just a little volatility over the last three months – in fact, much more so than we’ve seen from the commodity in a long time. As well as the new trading tariffs from President Trump affecting steel and aluminium imports from China, Canada, the EU and Mexico, we’ve also seen continued escalation of tensions on the North Korean peninsula, as well as promising signs of future peace.
Amidst this turbulent backdrop, gold began April trading at £949.65. Over the highs and lows of the three month period, the gold price ended up at the end of June almost exactly right back where it started. Here’s what happened in between.
Dollar begins with uncertainty
Gold finished March on a positive note, a high which very quickly began to disappear at the start of April, as the value of the dollar began to increase without warning – and confidence in the American economy rose accordingly. The value sank from its opening price of £949.65 to £944.18 on the 12th April, in line with the dollar movement.
Gold then fell to its lowest point of the three-month period, sinking to £937.24 on the 17th April.
The Kim Jong effect
And thus we return to North Korea, which has dominated headlines in the gold market for months. This period has perhaps been even more dramatic than we’re used to, after conflicting accounts of whether or not a summit between America and North Korean leaders would occur. After a confirmation, cancellation and reinstatement, the summit finally happened and we’re all on slightly firmer territory.
The developments of the North Korean situation helped to inflate the price slightly over the rest of June, though not quite to the extent that has historically been the case. The final day of April saw a figure of £955.09.
Italian turmoil in May
May began with an encouraging climb in the gold price, as Sterling fell against the dollar in the first half of May, causing the gold price to rise accordingly. Gold hit close to £970 on both the 4th and 10th of May.
However, as the month progressed, the world’s attention turned away from Korea and towards Italy, with the threat of new elections looming against the seeming impossibility of knitting a coalition government together out of the country’s fractious political parties. It was during this period that gold came into its own as a safe haven commodity. Investors turned to gold as the political situation in Italy looked more and more uncertain, particularly as they feared that any new election in Italy would potentially trigger an EU referendum in the country.
Gold rose to its highest point between April and June in this period, hitting £978.41 on the 25th May and moving even higher to £983.83 on the 29th May.
At the start of June, President Trump announced an unprecedented 10 per cent tariff on steel and 5 per cent on aluminium imports from most countries in the world.
A shocking and destabilising move like this that threatens a trade war would, you’d expect, make the gold price soar. Instead, it barely moved over this period, hitting a brief peak of £977.71 on the 14th June, before tumbling in value to £968.69 the very next day.
The one-day loss of almost one per cent of gold’s value came as a host of investors sold up their supplies of the commodity simultaneously, liquidating their assets in response to worse than expected performance over the preceding period.
The gold price continued to sink throughout the rest of June, and ended back down around the £950 mark at the time of writing (28th June). Despite being a comparative low from the heights we witnessed during the end of May, it remains very similar to the commodity’s value at the start of the three-month period.
Is this a good time to buy gold online?
Whether you’re looking to buy gold bullion by post, buy gold online, or buy directly from gold dealers, this could well be a good time to buy gold. With little change in the value of the commodity over this period, those looking to make a long-term investment in the commodity could well find this a convenient and cost-effective time to do so.